GRS-PH partnership will deliver two-thirds: Analyst
Published on: Sunday, August 04, 2024
By: Alex Ong
Dr Sulaiman said at least 20 parties would be vying for the 73 seats but predicted that only five coalitions have the potential to win seats – GRS, PH, Barisan Nasional (Umno, MCA, MIC and PBRS) and opposition parties such as Parti Warisan and Parti KDM.
Kota Kinabalu: The Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) partnership should have no problem securing a two-thirds majority if the two coalitions work together in the next State election due by September next year, said political analyst, Assoc Prof. Dr Sulaiman Haji Tahajuddin of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS).
He said GRS with eight partners in the grouping has the potential to win at least 42 seats in the 73-seat State Legislative Assembly. However, he said, weak components in GRS should not become spoilers by demanding to contest.
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Dr Sulaiman said Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS) led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor is expected to contribute more than 20 seats for GRS while its components PBS and Star are expected to win 13 seats or more together.
Other parties in GRS include Usno, SAPP, LDP, Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah and PCS.
“PH comprising PKR, DAP and Upko is expected to perform well and contribute more than 10 seats,” he said.
He cautioned against GRS and PH components squabbling when it comes to seat allocations.
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“Some component parties, especially in GRS, seen as the weak link should stay out and assist component partners to win big instead of becoming spoilers,” he said.
Dr Sulaiman said at least 20 parties would be vying for the 73 seats but predicted that only five coalitions have the potential to win seats – GRS, PH, Barisan Nasional (Umno, MCA, MIC and PBRS) and opposition parties such as Parti Warisan and Parti KDM.
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“In view of the changing trend in Sabah and Sarawak for local parties, GRS is expected to have the potential to gain more votes through PGRS, PBS and Star.
“PBS and Star signed a cooperation agreement recently and are expected to win in KDM majority areas.
“Support for BN is less prominent because of internal problems, especially in Umno. Umno Sabah’s failure to solve internal problems has also caused voter support to erode,” he said.
Sabah Umno, once the backbone during BN rule in the State, lost ground after Warisan came to power in 2018 but managed to redeem itself when it aligned with GRS to defeat Warisan and its partners in the snap election in 2020.
Sabah Umno led by Liaison Chief Datuk Seri Bung Mokhtar decided to stage a political coup against Hajiji together with Warisan in January last year but it fell flat.
Hajiji emerged victorious with 44 assemblymen supporting him, including all of PH’s assemblymen and a number from Umno. Later, many assemblymen from Warisan left to join Hajiji. Sabah Umno ended up split with many supporting Hajiji although still in Umno.
“Sabah Umno is fractured. Some of its leaders may deny but it is there for all to see what has become of the party today,” said Dr Sulaiman.
Dr Sulaiman said Umno’s possible partner in the next State election, Warisan, is also not expected to perform well after 10 assemblymen ditched the party since the last State election.
“The decision by Warisan President Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal to want to work with Sabah Umno have created internal conflict that causes division and some leaders and members may leave after the State Assembly is dissolved to protest their frustration,” he said.
Dr Sulaiman believes that PH, whose Chairman is Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, would prefer to continue working with GRS rather than Warisan or Sabah Umno.
“PH was part of the Warisan administration when Shafie was Chief Minister from 2018-2020. But PKR, DAP and Upko were dumped by Warisan after being defeated in the last State election and I doubt PH would want to continue that short-lived partnership again,” Dr Sulaiman said.
He said GRS also has the advantage in the next State election as the average Sabahans want Hajiji, who is GRS Chairman, to continue for another term.
“The opposition’s relentless attack on Hajiji, especially on social media, was nothing more than a desperate attempt to bring GRS and PH down.
“Many respected Hajiji’s leadership success in solving problems in Sabah such as water, electricity and roads in a prudent manner.
“These problems have been there for decades and only now something serious is been done by the GRS-PH administration to solve the problems once and for all.
“The people understand that it would take a bit of time to resolve these issues and are confident Hajiji would be able to do that if given the mandate to rule for another term,” he said.
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